The Case for Staying Invested: Why Timing the Market Doesn’t Work

Revisiting the Market Timing Debate

In our March 11 blog post, we explored the concept of time in the market versus timing the market. Recently, our Chief Investment Officer, Brad Tremitiere, compiled additional data that reinforces the conclusions we shared earlier.

You can read that original article here.

How We Make Decisions at Ranch Capital

At Ranch Capital, our Investment Committee meets weekly to review a wide range of information. This includes the economic data Brad gathers, along with technical and fundamental indicators for each holding across our investment models. Every position in every model is analyzed, and each committee member contributes to the discussion. All investment decisions are made thoughtfully and collaboratively.

While we will trim or add to positions based on a variety of factors, we do not adopt an “in the market” or “out of the market” approach. The new data is especially valuable for investors who may feel tempted to reduce exposure or “get out of the market” during periods of volatility.

The Cost of Missing the Best Days

This chart highlights an important insight: in roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 calendar years, the 10 Best Days outperform all other trading days combined. This reinforces the idea that missing even a handful of strong days—often clustered around periods of uncertainty—can significantly undermine long-term returns and highlights the importance of staying invested.

(Data Source: eSignal)

Why Staying Invested Beats Market Timing

Ultimately, the evidence strongly supports staying invested. Attempts to predict highs and lows, avoid downturns, or jump in and out of the market can have a seriously negative impact on portfolio performance.

We continue to believe investors are best served by staying the course, removing emotion from their strategy, automating their contributions to capture the benefits of dollar-cost averaging, and—above all—never trying to time the market.

2025's Top 10 Best Days (So Far)

Here are the 10 Best Days for the S&P 500 so far in 2025:

(Data Source: eSignal)

The Power of Compounding Over Time

Investing is a long-term discipline, and compounding remains one of the greatest forces in wealth building—what Einstein famously called the “eighth wonder of the world.”